{"id":28848,"date":"2025-07-01T11:26:54","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T09:26:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/networks.imdea.org\/?p=28848"},"modified":"2025-07-17T15:46:54","modified_gmt":"2025-07-17T13:46:54","slug":"social-probing-indirect-surveys-to-better-understand-society","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/networks.imdea.org\/es\/social-probing-encuestas-indirectas-para-entender-mejor-a-la-sociedad\/","title":{"rendered":"Social Probing: encuestas indirectas para entender mejor a la sociedad"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00bfC\u00f3mo podemos conocer qu\u00e9 piensa una sociedad sin recurrir a encuestas tradicionales que requieren grandes muestras y una inversi\u00f3n considerable? El proyecto Social Probing, ya finalizado y <strong>coordinado por el investigador Antonio Fern\u00e1ndez Anta<\/strong> desde IMDEA Networks y por la catedr\u00e1tica Rosa Lillo desde la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, se ha desarrollado en colaboraci\u00f3n con la UPM y la Universitat Jaume I con el objetivo de lograr precisamente eso: desarrollar herramientas escalables, econ\u00f3micas y respetuosas con la privacidad que permitan monitorizar a la sociedad de forma continua. Su propuesta: las encuestas indirectas.<\/p>\n<p>Este tipo de encuestas no preguntan directamente a las personas por sus propias opiniones, sino por las de su entorno: \u201c\u00bfCu\u00e1ntos de tus contactos votar\u00edan al partido X?\u201d o \u201c\u00bfCu\u00e1ntos han tenido s\u00edntomas de COVID-19?\u201d. A partir de esas respuestas, el equipo puede estimar el comportamiento o situaci\u00f3n real de la poblaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<h2>Nuevos usos para una t\u00e9cnica infrautilizada<\/h2>\n<p>Aunque las encuestas indirectas existen desde hace d\u00e9cadas, su uso ha sido muy limitado. Social Probing, financiado por el Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci\u00f3n y Universidades, ha retomado esta metodolog\u00eda y la ha llevado m\u00e1s all\u00e1, aplic\u00e1ndola a contextos tan variados como el seguimiento de la pandemia de COVID-19, la estimaci\u00f3n de intenci\u00f3n de voto en distintas elecciones o <strong>el reparto de tareas dom\u00e9sticas entre hombres y mujeres<\/strong>, en colaboraci\u00f3n con el Instituto de las Mujeres.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGracias a esta t\u00e9cnica, <strong>se ha logrado estimar con notable precisi\u00f3n la intenci\u00f3n de voto en elecciones auton\u00f3micas (como las de Madrid o Valencia), nacionales y europeas<\/strong>. De hecho, en las elecciones generales en Madrid, la estimaci\u00f3n del reparto de esca\u00f1os acert\u00f3 todos menos uno, usando apenas 200 participantes, frente a las muestras de miles de personas en encuestas tradicionales\u201d, subraya Fern\u00e1ndez Anta.<\/p>\n<h2>M\u00e1s privacidad, menos coste y mayor sinceridad<\/h2>\n<p>Las encuestas indirectas presentan varias ventajas frente a los sondeos tradicionales: requieren muestras m\u00e1s peque\u00f1as, lo que reduce los costes, y preservan mejor la privacidad. \u201cPreguntar por la intenci\u00f3n de voto de los contactos del encuestado es menos intrusivo que preguntarle directamente a \u00e9l\u201d, explica Fern\u00e1ndez Anta. Esto, adem\u00e1s, aumenta la probabilidad de obtener respuestas honestas.<\/p>\n<p>El equipo tambi\u00e9n ha detectado factores clave que influyen en la precisi\u00f3n de los resultados, como la edad del encuestado, que puede introducir sesgos dif\u00edciles de corregir. Para ello, han comenzado a estratificar las muestras por grupos de edad.<\/p>\n<h2>Resultados y pr\u00f3ximos pasos<\/h2>\n<p>Entre los principales resultados se encuentran tanto los datos obtenidos como las herramientas desarrolladas para dise\u00f1ar, desplegar y analizar encuestas indirectas. Este legado tecnol\u00f3gico y metodol\u00f3gico seguir\u00e1 vivo m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del proyecto: el equipo trabaja actualmente en una tesis doctoral sobre m\u00e9todos robustos para procesar este tipo de encuestas y en la identificaci\u00f3n de redes sociales adecuadas para su aplicaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>Tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1n explorando nuevas \u00e1reas de aplicaci\u00f3n, como la concienciaci\u00f3n sobre el uso del agua en Espa\u00f1a, con nuevas encuestas ya en desarrollo.<\/p>\n<div style=\"min-height: 30px;\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noindex,nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/networks.imdea.org\/es\/social-probing-encuestas-indirectas-para-entender-mejor-a-la-sociedad\/?format=pdf\" title=\"Download PDF\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float: left;max-width: 50px;\" alt=\"Download PDF\" src=\"https:\/\/networks.imdea.org\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-advanced-pdf\/asset\/images\/pdf.png\"><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u00bfC\u00f3mo podemos conocer qu\u00e9 piensa una sociedad sin recurrir a encuestas tradicionales que requieren grandes muestras y una inversi\u00f3n considerable? El proyecto Social Probing, ya finalizado y coordinado por el investigador Antonio Fern\u00e1ndez Anta desde IMDEA Networks y por la catedr\u00e1tica Rosa Lillo desde la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, se ha desarrollado en colaboraci\u00f3n&#8230;","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":28849,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,1187],"tags":[464,473,465,471,486],"class_list":["post-28848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sin-categoria","category-press-release","tag-imdea-networks","tag-innovation","tag-internet","tag-privacy","tag-social-networks"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Social Probing: encuestas indirectas para entender mejor a la sociedad - IMDEA Networks<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/networks.imdea.org\/es\/social-probing-indirect-surveys-to-better-understand-society\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Social Probing: encuestas indirectas para entender mejor a la sociedad - IMDEA Networks\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00bfC\u00f3mo podemos conocer qu\u00e9 piensa una sociedad sin recurrir a encuestas tradicionales que requieren grandes muestras y una inversi\u00f3n considerable? 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